To produce a forecast for season ( \tau ) of year ( y ), given observed data up to ( \tau-1 ): tipistar model

are generated by adding the Gaussian innovation ( \varepsilon_\tau, y \sim N(0, \sigma^2_\varepsilon,\tau) ) to ( \hatY ) before back-transformation, yielding an ensemble of possible outcomes. To produce a forecast for season ( \tau

Tipistar Model |work| Jun 2026

To produce a forecast for season ( \tau ) of year ( y ), given observed data up to ( \tau-1 ):

are generated by adding the Gaussian innovation ( \varepsilon_\tau, y \sim N(0, \sigma^2_\varepsilon,\tau) ) to ( \hatY ) before back-transformation, yielding an ensemble of possible outcomes.